1. Upper Valley met the long-term trend review trigger. Montgomery & Associates found statistically significant declining water-level trends in 60% of Upper Valley representative monitoring wells—nine of 15—compared with the committee’s 35% long-term action threshold. Forebay was at 11%. This was the first full action-level assessment following last year’s trial run. The result calls for further evaluation, not an automatic management measure. A separate short-term drought trigger of 30% was not met in either subbasin; the highest Upper Valley result was 6%.
2. The chair found visual associations with drier conditions, but the cause remains under review. The chair’s independent analysis associated declining groundwater levels with below-average precipitation, reduced Arroyo Seco and Salinas River flows, and lower reservoir releases. Extraction and crop-applied water did not show sustained increases, and wells examined in adjoining subbasins showed similar slight declines. Participants differed on whether the trends reflect a prolonged climate cycle or a pumping-and-recharge imbalance. The absence of an increase in pumping does not rule out a contribution from ongoing pumping when recharge is lower.
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