1. Technical staff assessed Upper Valley as being in overdraft; Forebay levels were generally stable. The GSA’s consulting team said long-term declining groundwater levels indicate overdraft in the Upper Valley. Nearly half of 31 wells with sufficient data showed declining trends, with more declines around San Lucas. The declines were generally modest; an analyst said perhaps one or two wells would reach their minimum thresholds by 2040. The modeled historical water budget estimated average Upper Valley groundwater-storage declines of 3,200 acre-feet per year from 2003 to 2020. Forebay groundwater levels were generally stable over the past 15–20 years, and the team did not assess that subbasin as being in overdraft. Staff cautioned that the model overestimated historical storage declines compared with observed groundwater levels. Staff emphasized that SGMA requires mitigation of overdraft separately from avoiding minimum-threshold exceedances. Neither committee voted to adopt an overdraft finding.
2. Drought and demand-management approaches remain under discussion. Staff discussed future drought planning and possible ways to address declining groundwater levels, particularly in the Upper Valley. They also discussed adding language about that work to the GSP amendments. No demand-management program, pumping cutbacks, triggers or implementation timeline was approved. One committee member questioned whether action now would be premature while minimum thresholds remain far away; staff said possible responses need further analysis.
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